Is a general glut possible?

Is a general glut possible? Introduction In macroeconomics, general glut refers to there is a supply excess in all industries. There is a long time running debate on the general glut from the late 18th century. Many economists try to figure out if there is a general glut in reality. Normally, glut could be exhibited in a economic depression or recession with high unemployment rate and idle manufactures. However, Jean-Baptiste Say(1803) established his theory Law of markets which advocates that there is no general glut . Say said products are paid for with products. In the other words, supply creates demand. Many classical and neoclassical economists support Says Law. Say brought up his theory after industrial revolution. Under that background, Says law might be right, because market was completely controlled by suppliers. It means suppliers are consumers. Therefore, Says law seems right. On the other hand, Says Law can be proved with one simple example: if firms cannot sell goods, then goods prices will be decreased until c onsumers accept it. The only problem is time. In the long run, Says law seems correct. Ricardo (1851) extended this notion to saving and investment. If manufacture produces more than one consumes, then the surplus is saved and, by definition of terms, invested. No one would produce in excess of consumption needs if one does not have a desire to either exchange it or invest it. Supply, therefore, is demand. This virtually all the Classical economists held to be an irrefutable truth. However, some economists denied Says law concluding there is a general glut in economy. Keynesian argues that some microeconomic-level actions can lead to a general glut. Next, unnecessarily high unemployment rate is the evidence of a general glut. Austrian school economists argue that misallocation of resource causes the gneral glut. Some post-Keynesian economists think credit bubbles or speculative bubbles is the cause of general glut. In my opinion, general glut exists in the modern society. The severe worldwide economic depression in the 1930s and financial crisis in 2007 prove that there is a general glut in reality. Especially, the global financial crisis in 2007 makes me to believe that Keynesian is correct and general glut is possible. It is controversial that government should adopt laissez-fair or Keynesian policy to exit finaical crisis. From laissez-fair side, economists suggest government should stimulate production and this is the only way to control crisis. On the other hand, Keynesians supporters argue that government should stimulate demand. Because they think insufficient aggregate damand causes the fiancial crisis. Says law This part I will discuss Says law more detail and analyse why Says law is inconsistent with other economistss theories. Say is the first economists to advocate that the price of a product is dominated by its supply and demand. Say(1803) established Law of markets theory which argues that the total supply in an economy can never fall below or exceed the amount of total demand. Therefore, there is no general glut in a economy. On the other hand, Say argues that money is neutral. Personally, I think Says thought about moneys purpose is inconsistent with most economists arguments. It is the one reason why his theory is inconsistent with most economists theories. Say(1983) contended trader is interested in other products, not money. He thinks there is no reason to hoard money and moneys purpose is buying other goods. In contrast, I think many people are engaging to hoard money for various reasons. For example, ones salary is 2000 dollars per month, it is impossible for him to use 2000 dollars every month. One will make a financial plan and save one small proportion in the bank purposely. Many classical and neoclassical theory supports Says law. I read the story like shoe-hat world or some two things world in their articles. In the shoe-hat world, they exchange one good for another good . According to their explanations, there could be three possible circumstances in the shoe hat world. I got this idea from a on-line article called the general glut controversy. First of all, shoes makers and hat makers have enough quantities to satisfy all demand. Then, there is a overproduction of hats, meaning too great a demand for hats. Next, there may be too many shoes in the market. However, there never be a overproduction of both goods. Because a shoes maker would not produce one more if he or she did not need more hats. On the other hand, there could be a glut for one good, but there could not be a general glut. It seems plausible that general glut does not exist. However, they overlooked a important stuff, of course, money. In the current society, we are not in the barter economy. Money plays a important role in capitalize economy. If i introduce money in the two person economy, there is a little change. Mill, John Stuart (1844)argues that in the simple exchange economy, supply creats demand. However, when money is the exchange medium, people can hoard the sales profit. Therefore, supply do not always create demand and general confidence can change the balance between supply and demand. Joseph Clark(2010) argues that there still cannot be a general glut after we introduce money. He said there could be surplus in all goods relative to money. From the long term side, I think there is no general glut, however, in the short term, definitely supply does not equal to demand due to price is not flexible. It means there is overproduction or underproduction. Says law just messed up by the exchange medium, money. Great depression and global financial crisis It is important to discuss the economic depression in the 1930s and global financial crisis in 2007. From these two events, I firmly believe general glut exists. Many economists argued that government interventions is the main reason for financial crisis. Robert ( 2009) asserts that one cause of financial crisis is the unregulated financial market. Some researchers thought the main reason for financial crisis is humans greed. Adrian(2008) concluded one cause of the crisis is a change in the model of banking, mixing credit with equity culture. Nevertheless, I think general glut is the main reason. After doc.com bubble bursting, American government decreased interest rate to prevent economic recession. Between 2001 and 2004, interest rate even reached the lowest point of 50 years, 1%. I think real estate glut is the fuse of the crisis. After real estate bubble bursting, the general glut came up. For example, the Big three(GE,FORD,CLESLER) asked for $50 billion to avoid bankruptcy and e nsuing layoffs, then Congress worked out a 25$ billion loan. From a more widen scope, looking at the data from Wikipedia, the annulized rate of decline in GDP was 14.4% in Germany, 15.2% in Japan, 7.4% in the UK, 9.8% in the Euro. Looking at the unemployment rate of economic downturn in the 1930s: unemployment in the United states arose to 25% and some other countries reached 33%(frank, 2007).If Says law is correct and general glut is invisible, there is no unemployment. I will explain why unemployment rate is related with Says law and general glut in the next part. Say and other nineteenth-century economists argued that products can find buyers eventually if prices are sufficiently attractive. I admit this argument is correct. If Airbus sells A380 as cars price, I think there is no overproduction problem for Airbus. I think many theories are established in a perfect and simple world. Actually many theories cannot apply to reality because of imperfect economy system. Some other theories Keynes (1936) argued that unnecessarily high unemployment rate was the evidence of the general glut. Aggregate demand for products is less than aggregate supply, causing economic recession and losses of potential output. There are three important concepts in Keynes paper. The first one is propensity to consume. The marginal propensity to consumer is the relative increase in personal consumption, that comes with an increase in disposable income. The marginal propensity is less than one. In the other words, the actual production level is lower than the full employment production level. Therefore, there is a gap between total income and total consumption. This gap would not be eliminated which conflicts Says law. Now, someone maybe ask if investments can close this gap. Many economists believe that saving is equal to investment. Keynes(1963) argues that investment cannot close this gap because there is no evidence showing that investment is equal to saving. Keynes contend that saving de pends on the households income level. It means one earns more and one saves more. However, investments depends on the marginal efficiency of capital. Keynes thinks saving and investment are totally different terms and have no autocorrelation. Austrian school economists argue that misallocation of resource causes the depression, even general glut. They also contend the depression is a tool to wipe out the excessive supply.(wiki) Austrian school economists focus on the credit cycle when they see the business cycle. they think depression is inevitable after credit bubble burst. Artificially low interest rate could lead speculative economic bubbles. Then, recession comes up to adjust the balance of saving and investment(Thorsten Polleit,2007). I think Austrian school theory is similar to post-Ksynesian. They both think general glut cause as one spends more than one earns. Personally, I think greed is another way to interpret this problem. some post-Keynesian economists think credit bubbles or speculative bubbles is the cause of general glut. From Irving Fishing ¼Ã‹â€ 1933 ¼Ã¢â‚¬ ° view, debt bubble busrting leads general glut. According to his debt deflation theory, a series of bad things occur after bubble bursting. First of all, distress selling and debt liquidation lead contraction of the money supply. Then, decrease of asset value and fall in firms profits. Afterwards, unemployment rate increase leads pessimism. Finally, people will hoard money. Therefore, a general glut comes up due to the shift from using more than one earns to spending less than one earns leads a sustained decrease in aggregate demand(wiki). It is necessary to talk about Marxian in the general glut debate. Marx(1864) contend that there are two types of goods, one is capital goods like machines and another one is consumer goods that are not durable. According to Marx, I think capitalist economy target is capital goods accumulation. On the other hand, firms goal is profit maximum. Looking back to our reality, many developed countries companies are using outsource strategy. They are reaching the maximum marginal profit. So there will be more and more goods but unchanged demand power even lower. Therefore, general glut is possible in the capitalist economy. Sismondi(1861) and Karl Marx have a same idea about time lag in the products transaction. I think this idea exists in the reality, for example, one produced a good and sell it. However, he would hoard money for a while before he buy other goods with money he earned. Therefore, there is a breakdown in the transaction and overproduction crisis can occur. Actually some economists oppose to Says law before Keyne and Marx. Malthus(1820) argues that producers do not always exchange their goods for other goods. Some goods are exchanged for labour. However, Says law does not concerns about employment and unemployment. Therefore the entire goods can lose value due to unproductive labour,meanwhile, general glut can exist. From the money side, Say and his supporters think is completely neutral. However, Malthus(1820) contend that producer wants money not other goods. He think it is so abstract that people want goods and not money. I persist Malthuss thought is correct. For example, I want to buy a house or a luxury car, so I will to save my money within five even ten years. Before I buy a house, money is preferable for me. Eventually, I admit my saving is for goods, however, I do not immediately change goods when I get money. There is a gap, even for a while, this gap will cause a general glut. conclusion I think it is impossible to avoid the crisis of general glut. Theoretically, general glut is a issue of income distribution. Profit is distributed to minority. This could leads social savings and investments too high as well as low consumption, hence the scale of production and consumption is asymmetry. Then, general glut comes up. Therefore, I support that government should stimulate aggregate demand side to exist crisis. Then, I disagree Says standpoint that supply creates demand. Just a simple example, manufactures always increase their investments when economy is booming. They think there will be more demand in the future , so they build more factories and buy more raw materials in advance. However, economic crisis may be happen suddenly leading to less consumption. Therefore, there will be many idle factories and high unemployment rate as well as unsold goods. Under this condition, I can barely believe that supply creates demand. I think general glut exists due to firms managers overestimate the demand quantities and misjudge macroeconomic situation. I think greedy soul is the main cause of overestimation and misjudgement. It is also the deep reason for the general glut. Many people debate on the term general and think there could be overproduction for one good or two goods or one thousand goods, however, no general glut. I think once money exists in our economy as a exchange tool, there could be general glut. Maybe money is not overproduction,but money is not good. There is no industry called money industry. On the other hand, I pretty sure government policies would solve the general glut issue. For example, FED injected money supply after 2007 financial crisis. This topic is so profound and tricky. My essay is not a statistics based paper, so I cannot provide enough data to prove my notion. Money is a critical variable in this debate. Some economists argue that money is neutral and give so little importance to money. Actually money has a meaning of value store rather than exchange. However, I still persist that general glut exists in the short run and supply seemingly create demand in the long run. in the other words, overproduction crisis is the situation that supplier cannot sell their goods at meanwhile. Is it possible? Obviously, the answer is yes. 1930 depression and 2007 financial crisis tell us the answer is yes. However, market itself adjusts and heals general gluts crisis eventually. I agree Keyness critique of Says law. But I am still confused his thought about saving and investment. I do not agree saving rate depends on income level rather than interest rate. For example, Chinese saving rate is higher than some western countries, however, Chinese income level is lower than western countries. Personally, I think interest rate has a strong relationship with saving. Finally, if Says law is acceptable, it means government should adopt laissez-fair policies. However, I think Keynesian is more rational and acceptable than laissez-fair. Global financial crisis and 30th great depression give a strong evidence for this debate. I pretty sure market is rational, however, overlooking one variable, of course, people. Human control the market and price and I have to say people are not rational sometimes. However, there is no general glut in the barter economy. In the other words, all goods are exchange for other goods. Plus, sellers buy other goods immediately after they sell goods. This circumstance seems so abstract and unrealistic. I cannot deny Says law influence and implications. Says law is a pillar of classical economic theory. Understanding the inner implication of Says law is important for government to control a crisis or avoid a crisis.

Adolescent Sexuality in Teens Essay

Adolescent sexuality and the resulting consequences have always been a concern to many societies across numerous generations. Teenage pregnancy, teenage parenthood and teenage infections with sexually transmitted diseases brings with it unique burdens not only to the adolescent affected, but also the society as a whole. In North America, every year more than 45000 teenagers aged 19 and below become pregnant (Martin, Park, & Sutton, 2002). These rates have dropped compared to their recent peak in 1990, with the decline said to be a result increased use of contraceptives amongst the youth. Nevertheless, these adolescent pregnancy rates range from about 50 percent to 550 percent more than the rates in other European societies (Darroch, Singh, & Frost, 2001). Every year 1 in every four sexually experienced teens (3 million teens) contract sexually transmitted disease and the teen pregnancy result in over two hundred thousand abortions each year. For those who carry their pregnancy to term, Eighty-three percent occur out of wedlock. Even in controlled studies adolescent mothers have been found to have lower education attainment levels. The most disturbing thing, however, is the evidence that the burden of adolescent parenthood accrues the greatest impact to members of the next generation. Problems normally start at birth: Documented evidence have shown that pregnant adolescents risk giving birth weight baby and these children of adolescent mothers are more likely to exhibit poor cognitive functioning and school adjustment than children born to older mothers. In adolescents, researchers have found massive delinquency, failure and risk for early parenthood amongst children of adolescent mothers. Teen Sexuality and Pregnancy Prevention amongst Adolescents                      If sexuality is a lightning rod in the community, then adolescent sexuality reflects that point where the charges are highest and most unstable. There is tension within societies around the meaning of adolescent sexuality either as a marker or moral decay or as a normal, healthy and natural growth process. The culture revolving around adolescent sexuality has relied heavily on sex education as a preventive measure. There are two opposing line of theory that had been developed earlier. One perspective stated that on a simple empirical basis, a sizeable percentage of adolescents become sexually active before reaching 18 years. It further states that educating them about the nature of sexual and its consequences would be one of the most effective means of curbing teenage pregnancies. In this perspective, teenage pregnancy is best prevented by accepting a role for teenage sexual activity as healthy, but certainly requiring direct and open discussions, a ccompanied by moral prescriptions. The other view posits that any educative activity that was based on the assumption that adolescents may become sexually active as teens cannot help but implicitly support such behavior. Thus, â€Å" explicit† sex education that includes teaching in topics such as birth control would lead to an increase in the view of adolescents on sexual activity as a viable option. Even though, explicit sex education programs might not necessarily encourage such behaviors, they were perceived as at least providing a â€Å"nod† suggesting that it is expected. Explicit sex education was see at worst as suggesting that sexual activity is a normative behavior to naà ¯ve teenagers who would have otherwise not considered it. At a minimum, educational programs have been seen as reducing the teenager’s sense that sexual activity is universally seen by adults as inappropriate before marriage or adulthood. In either case, programs like these were seen as likely to increase the levels of teenage sexual activity, with a very likely chance that these increases would lead to higher rates of sexually transmitted infections and pregnancies as well. Prevention Programs that work- Common elements                      There has been one approach to sexual education programs that have been effective. It combines educational material with a notable amount of skills that revolve around assertive and sexual behaviors. For example, skill based prevention measures against HIV have been implemented in Colorado schools and has been shown to lead to contribute to increasing the use of condoms reduce number of multiple sexual partners. Similarly, a successful HIV prevention study in which the education program used included training in social skills was compared to education only approach, and found the latter clearly superior. Research has also shown that combining of information-based programs with other development oriented programs did much better than interventions that focused on information alone in reducing irresponsible sexual behavior and teenage pregnancy rates. Interventions that seek to develop skills in self-efficacy together with the provision of information did much better than programs that provide information alone. Programs that teach about safe sex, while placing a lot of emphasis on responsibility and pride in decision making also seem to do better than programs that only teach safer sex behaviors (Jemmott & Fong, 1998). Finally, programs that narrowly focus on abstinence only are yet to yield any findings. The interpretation of these findings is that emotional and social development components of these prevention programs function as catalysts that help leverage the impact of abstinence or education-based approaches. The idea of preventing adolescent pregnancies, repeat pregnancies, or failures in parenting, by focusing on something else other than sexual behavior may at first seem to be avoidant, foolish or hopelessly indirect. However, on a closer look of research done on adolescent sexual behavior show that this approach may yield much better results than programs that focus solely on sexual behaviors. It has long been recognized that irresponsible sexual activity tends not to happen in isolation, to occur together with higher levels of substance abuse. This approach states that it makes less sense to view a single behavioral problem in isolation; rather, the problem should be seen as part of a unified syndrome that has an underlying risk manifesting itself in many different forms (Bell, 1986). This approach is thought to apply to patterns of delinquent behavior even in adulthood and starts to shed some light into the research findings discussed above. The impact of programmatic interventions on behaviors such as adolescent sexuality, start to be more plausible if we understand teenage sexual behavior as reflecting underlying problems that might lead to the emergence of a host of other problematic behaviors. In short, seeing an adolescent as a â€Å"whole person† may be fundamental in solving the problem. A lot can be learned from this programs and research that address teenage sexual behavior. The first is that adolescent pregnancy prevention is possible byways that may seem to be very indirect routes. A lot of evidence has emerged showing that by assisting teenagers to achieve educational success and be in control of their fertility, we are preventing teenage pregnancy in the coming generation. The most important implication is that currently there are several tools that can be used to prevent negative consequence of teenager’s sexual behavior. It may make little sense to think that giving extensive sex education will lower teenage pregnancy rates; it seems equally not viable that focusing on abstinence without looking at the broader aspects of social development will have an effect. Long-term interventions can help by helping the youth to have a higher sense of connection to the larger community, for example, by increasing their sense of self-efficacy, assertiveness, their impulse control and their hope about the future. Teens who are craving for a sense of connection and intimacy are more likely to engage in sexual behavior for which they are not ready for (Allen, 2002). The use of the nutritional model may be particularly appropriate here as these teenagers may be starving for a place within the social world and a sense of connection to the broader society. In short, when we focus on the development of a teenager as a whole person may precisely target those behaviors and developmental factors that are directly connected to preventing risky sexual behavior and its consequences. These programs are likely to build the capacity of youth and can greatly increase their motivation and skill at avoiding risky sexual behavior (Kirby & Coyle, 1997) even if they may not be addressing sexual behavior directly. By giving the youth opportunity to talk about their feelings, interests and concerns about sexuality, as well as practice negotiation and decision making skills, we will be enabling them to develop their moral framework about sexuality. References Allen, J. P. (2002). Observed Autonomy And Connection With Parents And Peers As Predictors Of Early Adolescent Sexual Adaptation. Paper presented at the Biennial Meetings of the Society for Research in Adolescence, New Orleans, LA. Bell, R. Q. (1986). Age Specific Manifestations in Changing Psychosocial Risk. In D. C. Farran & J. D. McKinney (Eds.), The concept of risk in intellectual and psychosocial development. New York: Academic Press. Darroch, J. E., Singh, S., & Frost, J. J. (2001). Differences in teenage pregnancy rates among five developed countries: the roles of sexual activity and contraceptive use. Family Planning Perspectives, 33(6), 244-250. Jemmott, J. B., III, Jemmott, L. S., & Fong, G. T. (1998). Abstinence and safer sex HIV risk-reduction interventions for African American adolescents. Jama: Journal of the American Medical Association, 279(19), 1529-1536. Kirby, D., & Coyle, K. (1997). School-based programs to reduce sexual risk-taking behavior. Children & Youth Services Review, 19(5-6), 415-436. Martin, J. A., Park, M. M., & Sutton, P. D. (2002). Births: Preliminary Data for 2001. National Vital Statistics Reports, 50, Number 10. Source document

The Appeal of College Paper

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Castles Of Steel Book Review - 2039 Words

Saranda Dellovci Baruch College Spring 2015 Castles of Steel - Book review Castles of Steel; Britain, Germany, and the Winning of the Great War at Sea. Robert K. Massie. Ballantine Books, 2003. 865 pages with 23 maps and photos. Paperback. $20.00. Castles of steel is a book written about the First World War. Robert K. Massie brings us a great overview of what the war was like in 1914. Starting from the beginning of the book, Massie begins with his first chapter of the War in July 1914. This gives an overview of the beginning of the war in which the readers can get a sense of Massie’s knowledge of his overview of the war from which he understands so well. From the list of chapters the war doesn’t really portray many enemies though. This being said, the book gives an overlook more of the heroes rather than the enemies. Massie, a man who studied about the First World War throughout his life, devoted to studying United States History and European History at both Yale and Oxford university. Massie uses a number of maps and photographs in Castles of Steel, which show the point of battle, and gives the readers a sense of the battle and where it took place. Some photographs in his book show of Admirals, ships, battle sce nes and important people during the time of war. Castles of Steel is Massie’s fourth book. Taking a look at Germany and Britain from the First World War is explained in detail in Massie’s book Castles of Steel. Massie’s explanation of Castles of Steel leavesShow MoreRelated`The Italian Retreat from Modern Architecture: Gio Ponti, Neoliberty and others3151 Words   |  13 PagesItalian architects that were trying to be edictal in the way they developed architecture, just interested in themselves Guido Canella, a page from the article on the Amsterdam School Reyner Banham, conclusion of his article in The Architectural Review Ernesto Nathan Rogers, ‘Continuita o crisi? 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FOUNDING: Islam was founded by Muhammad when he received word from Allah in a prophecy (or vision). He began life in Mecca where idolatry was a main fact of life but had to flee to Madinah to escape prosecution in what has come to be known as the Hijrah. 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Applying two schools of thought in institutional theory, we conceptualize, first, the differences between CSR in theRead MoreSecurity Analysis Portfolio Management7511 Words   |  31 Pagesperiod May 2012 June 2012. ï‚ ·Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Dividend is not considered in the calculation of Return. Price change is only taken into consideration. ï‚ ·Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Situations in stock market are always subject to change. ï‚ ·Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Time constraint   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  2.REVIEW OF LITERATURE According to Adam.Y.C.Lei Huihua.li (2012),  Motivated by an obvious gap between the widespread use of Bloomberg terminals in the finance industry and the scant resources available to an instructor on how to incorporate the available